Forwarded from: Richard Forno <rfornoinfowarrior.org>

http://online.securityfocus.com/columnists/135
Copyright © 2003 Securityfocus

After a much-needed holiday hiatus, I'm back for 2003. And what better
way to kick off the new year than with a series of predictions for the
Internet security community?

For better or for worse, 2003 will be an exciting year for information
assurance professionals and for the Internet in general, particularly
on the policy and technical fronts. As always, the phrase "never a
dull moment" will apply to us involved in the security field, which
will hopefully mean that we¹ll stay gainfully employed.

White House Cybersecurity Strategy

Perhaps the single greatest item to make security headlines (barring a
major Internet attack) will be the upcoming public release of the
White House Cybersecurity Strategy in its second, and final ­ for now
­ form. Having seen a draft of the latest version, I'm pleased to
report that it's more focussed and less sensational than its
predecessor (released last summer). It also appears to contain much
more realistic aspirations and security guidelines than the first
version.

The White House Cybersecurity team sought feedback on its first draft
from industry and the public and, to its credit, paid attention to the
comments received, as evidenced in this latest version. Knowing that
for any national information security strategy to succeed requires
further and regular cooperation between industry and government, and
knowing that this draft facilitates such cooperation, I believe it
will be the major policy item for 2003. Of course, this assumes all
involved parties back up their security rhetoric with visible and
effective action.

Increased Encryption

Given the increasing breadth and invasiveness of electronic
surveillance powers granted to law enforcement under the controversial
USA-PATRIOT Act, there will be a growing underground community
developing easier-to-use encryption and privacy-enhancing software
that the average user can avail themselves of while. PGP and other
high-end privacy applications will continue to be used by power users.
In light of the shadowy "war on terrorism", it's likely that
government officials will try and brand such tools as "supportive of
terrorism" and attempt to stigmatize them in the public eye. Such
efforts will mirror previous federal efforts to stifle digital
privacy, such as the failed attempt to outlaw PGP in the mid-1990s.

DMCA

The Digital Millenium Copyright Act will become less of an anti-piracy
legal tool and, as we¹re seeing now with the Lexmark Case, will
instead be used by large companies to ensure their marketplace
dominance and force competitors out of business. Further, in light of
the legal victories of Jon Johannsen and Dmitry Sklyarov, the courts
and the public are more frequently realizing, and formally
challenging, the lunacy of Hollywood's quest for domination of the
digital environment. This will be a slow, arduous struggle. But it
will be necessary to ensure the protection of freedom and innovation
expected by consumers living in the Information Age. It's quite likely
that 2003 will be replete with DMCA-related stories making headlines
around the world.

Corporate Security

Enterprises will continue paying lip service to information assurance.
Unfortunately, they will continue to do nothing about it, as the
prevailing sentiment amongst corporations is that securing systems
detracts from profits instead of assuring them. As such, corporations
will continue paying high-priced consultants to conduct vulnerability
reviews, draft policies, and secure their systems while continuing to
ignore their recommendations on how to improve security.

Security of DNS Servers

Security of the Internet will continue to be a heated and highly
politicized topic for 2003, as various special interests ­
governments, corporations, law firms, and ICANN, to name but a few ­
jockey to make themselves the controlling force in charge of securing
critical DNS servers around the world. We¹ll see frequent references
to the October 2001 attacks against several root servers as
justification to make dramatic changes to how DNS works.

While the ostensible motivation will be to improve the security of the
Internet, the real objective will be to increase corporate
profitability. Industry will lobby against the Internet community's
easy and cost-effective proposals to improve DNS security, and will
instead prolong the DNS security debate into 2004 and beyond, or until
a pro- business solution is reached.

Vulnerabilities

With regard to technical vulnerabilities, I'm wagering that while the
aggregate number of Windows and *NIX vulnerabilities will remain a
tight race, the term "Microsoft product" will continue to be
synonymous with "buffer overflow" and other such programming goofs.
As well, the contentious debate over the full disclosure of
vulnerabilities will continue to rage amongst security stakeholders.
And Apple will continue ignoring the significant out-of-the-box
security features Mac OSX provides and overlook a major benefit of
their product as it continues enticing Windows switchers.

Allocating Responsibility for Security

Unfortunately, the practice of avoiding responsibility for information
assurance will remain the single largest obstacle to effective
security. The latest version of the Cybersecurity Strategy has no
provisions for making the producers of security products accountable
for the failures of their programs. This is most likely due to
industry lobbying in Washington. As a result, vendors will still have
neither mandated accountability nor real incentive to provide products
that are not easily exploited or abused.

Until an enterprise CIO is fired or the US government issues a public
'threat warning' suggesting folks avoid a specific product for
security reasons ­ both of which steps would encourage and force
accountability on security managers and product vendors ­ the state of
information assurance really won¹t change much for the better.
Instead, it will be business as usual and security professionals will
continue to be engaged in their traditional game of digital futility
as they scramble from one problem to another.

That's Just My Opinion

These are a few forecasts for 2003 gleaned from my curmudgeonly
crystal ball over the holiday season. Some may indeed come true, while
others may prove me wrong. All things considered, I'll wager that
these predictions are more accurate than anything you'll get from Miss
Cleo or any other per-minute psychic.

Still, I'm holding out optimism that we'll see real change for the
better this year. But, as comedian Dennis Miller is fond of saying,
"that's just my opinion, I could be wrong."

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